投资笔记


Stock investing notes

公司群体的划分

一家公司的business 可以分成三个群体:customer, employee 和owner

customer就是购买公司服务/商品的人。

employee是公司的雇员,雇员的头头是CEO。

owner是公司的拥有者,是所有股东,其中,股东的头头是董事会board of director

就个人来说,他既可以是某个公司的customer,也可以是雇员,也可以在董事会列席。比如sundar之于谷歌。

衡量投资的风险

price to book value ratio: 股票的价格与其对应的净资产(Equity=Asset – Liability)的比值。该比值越高,买股票的风险就越高。它代表着如果你买的公司此刻破产清算(liquidity)的话,你还能拿到多少钱。

price to earning ratio:股票价格与其对应的年盈利能力的比值。该比值越高,意味着你付出的买股票的钱所能对应的每年挣的钱就越少。

为了计算以上的两个值,你需要找到他们的total outstanding shares,以及他们的equity,和年度earning,再做简单的除法比较。

我们要比较股票的价格和它的内在价值的差值,再决定是否要买。

Yahoo Finance 可以找到相关的PE,PB的值,以及公司的三张表。


巴菲特买股票的四个原则

1. a stock must be stable and understandable

2. a stock must have long term prospects: 这个行业,或企业,有长长的坡。

3. a stock must be managed by vigilant leaders: individuals that manage debt well

4. a stock must be undervalued

A quick valuation tool

Market price, earnings, book value

price / earnings = 5 -> 20% yearly return

price / earning = 20 -> 5% yearly return

price / book value = 5 -> 20% safety

price / book value = 1 -> 100% safety

price / book value = 0.7 -> 134% safety

Buffet looks for stocks that P/E < 15, P/book value (BV) < 1.5

When combines the two factors: P/E * (P/BV) < 22.5


The importance of patience and individuality

不要想着一夜致富,保持耐心;独立思考,如果你正在做其他人也在做的事情,那你可能做错了。

计算债券的收益率 Yield to maturity

YTM: 假设你一直持有债券到到期(拿回face value),并假设你把每年的coupon(也就是利息)都用来reinvest,且假定reinvest的利率与现在债券的利率相同,那么你的平均年化收益率为YTM。

假设债券face value为FV;current price为P,还剩N年到期,票面利率为R。

那么到期时,我们能拿到的钱为(假设利率都reinvest,复合收益):

FV*(1+R)^N

那么我们的YTM为

P*(1+YTM)^N = FV*(1+R)^N

YTM = sqrt((FV*(1+R)^N / P), N) – 1

YTM不要和current yield搞混。current yield = FV * R / P

把Mr. Market想象成你的受情绪影响的business partner,他是你的servant,不是你的guide。

教训:不要看市场情绪,而是看公司的内在价值。

Stop order:当市场价在P时,执行我的order。我最终的执行价可能高于可能低于P,但会在P附近。

What is the FED

The FED manages the US currency and ultimately controls the U.S. Economy.

Reason for the FED: Before 1913, the United states had over 30,000 different currencies circulating.

FED is a private institution. It is owned by 12 regional federal reserve banks, commercial banks, foreign banks and individuals.

How does the FED stabilize the financial system?

By adjusting the interest rate, to change the consumers/business habit.

When interest rate is high, you need to buy bond.

when interest rate is low, buy stocks with low debt, great earnings, book value high, only buy stock when the price is under the intrinsic value.

How do you know what’s considered a high or low interest rates?

By compare the bond and stock return rate.

Course session 2

Risks and rewards

risk 1: excessive debt in the company

  • Debt is to speed up things. Use money to buy time.
  • However, too much debt could impose a lot of risk.

risk 2: over pay an asset

  • price is what you pay; value is what you get

risk 3: not knowing what you are buying

reverted bond yield curve的含义,视频介绍

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-yields-extend-drop-toward-2-11559929639?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=14

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